Greetings Gents,
Spezia at HELLAS VERONA – Spezia’s main disability has been their inability to maintain focus on the road and score goals. Let us pretend that fan support would be available for this match and look at what each of these has displayed so far, starting with the ever-unpredictable Spezia. In 11 eleven games: 1W-4D-6L, 9GF and 17 GA. Hellas Verona has been even more atrocious at home (with little fan base), compiling the following record: 1W-3D-6L, 11 goals against and only 4 goals scored. The last 6 games for Spezia have seen them face a carousel of problematic teams: Rimini, Piacenza, Treviso, Juventus, Cesena, and Bologna. Truly, a tough stretch in the schedule, culminating with a huge 2-0 victory at home against Bologna. In a season where they have displayed very gritty defense, and luckless offense, one should note their performance directly after producing the rare victory (strangely enough all on the road), with 1 win and 2 draws. With all the games available on the B card, many may wonder why bother with Spezia. Spot me a 0.5 goal against Hellas Verona, who has managed to win only 1 in 10 games, and the selection becomes more apparent. Should not be any different than week 3, with Spezia winning 1-0. The play:
Spezia pk and +0.5 +106 (4 units)
Vicenza at CESENA – Cesena experiencing best stretch of their Serie B campaign, with 3 straight victories. One thing with Cesena, when (gifted) offence is firing on all cylinders; they can score against anyone (Juventus included). Offense back in gear in last three games having scored 5. Prior to that, only 1 goal in four games. I will not deny that Vicenza is playing well, with just two losses in last 12, but they just don’t match up against Cesena’s counter attacking midfield that has better size and speed. With 35 points, and a trip to US Pescara next week, Cesena must now make a statement for potential Serie A playoff spot. Fan support would have been huge for this one (1 loss in 12 home games for Cesena). Nonetheless, overall better team should produce accordingly (week 3 saw Cesena beat Vicenza 1-0). The play:
Cesena -0.5 -101 (4.5 units)
Brescia at TREVISO – Treviso continuing on a phenomenal stretch. Latest victim was Triestina last week (2-1 win). Following the X-Mas break, one of the more productive Serie B teams, 4 wins and 2 draws, with 10 goals scored, in 6 games. Decent price to pursue a team in excellent form (fans or no fans). The play:
TREVISO pk and -0.5 +106 (4 units)
Rimini at FROSINONE – Excellent. Recent scoring drought for Rimini has produced the "Under" inclinded line. Contributing to it, has been Frosinone’s unexpected and surprising defensive change. Will take nothing away from Frosinone, but in last 4 opponents ( Crotone, Albinoleffe, Modena, and Arezzo) see nothing of the Rimini kind. Barring any inclement weather, this match will have a quick pace and lots of nerve. These two are so similar in their 3-4-3 midfield oriented schemes that it should produce plenty of counter attacking chances. At the PK line, I will not go against Frosinone, who could pull off the offset. They will trade goals, all the way up the 90<SUP>th</SUP> minute, in what should be a surprising high scoring affair. It would not surprise me to see a 2-2 draw, but think Frosinone will produce enough for what should be the victory. The play:
FROSINONE pk –110 (5.5 units)
FROSINONE over OVER 2 and 2.5 +107 (7.5 units)
AS Roma at EMPOLI – All Serie A games for Saturday will be played at the same time. With the expectation of an easy Inter Milan victory vs Cagliari, Roma must go for the victory. Empoli in fine form, but will face an opponent with offensive prowess, and perhaps Serie A’s best defense. If opponent was other than Roma, would jumping all over Empoli. However, not enough firepower in the defensive-minded 4-4-1-1 host to seriously threaten the visitor. With the Lyon match on Wednesday, Spalletti will rest defensive core (Mexes / Chivu). But midfield of De Rossi / Pizarro, and striker Totti / Tavano formation could see Empoli spend a better part of the game retreated on the defensive front. See this one as a "true under", with scoring – if any – coming from Roma. The play:
AS Roma –0.5 +109 (4 units)
AS Roma under 2 and 2.5 –104 (7.5 units)
Ma says: Careful! Too many quicksands created by the absence of the fans. Nonetheless, for those considering one or two plays in Serie A or B, consider the Frosinone Over and AS Roma Under. If not, Sunday's card
contains two very good prospects.
Cheers and good luck,
MA
Spezia at HELLAS VERONA – Spezia’s main disability has been their inability to maintain focus on the road and score goals. Let us pretend that fan support would be available for this match and look at what each of these has displayed so far, starting with the ever-unpredictable Spezia. In 11 eleven games: 1W-4D-6L, 9GF and 17 GA. Hellas Verona has been even more atrocious at home (with little fan base), compiling the following record: 1W-3D-6L, 11 goals against and only 4 goals scored. The last 6 games for Spezia have seen them face a carousel of problematic teams: Rimini, Piacenza, Treviso, Juventus, Cesena, and Bologna. Truly, a tough stretch in the schedule, culminating with a huge 2-0 victory at home against Bologna. In a season where they have displayed very gritty defense, and luckless offense, one should note their performance directly after producing the rare victory (strangely enough all on the road), with 1 win and 2 draws. With all the games available on the B card, many may wonder why bother with Spezia. Spot me a 0.5 goal against Hellas Verona, who has managed to win only 1 in 10 games, and the selection becomes more apparent. Should not be any different than week 3, with Spezia winning 1-0. The play:
Spezia pk and +0.5 +106 (4 units)
Vicenza at CESENA – Cesena experiencing best stretch of their Serie B campaign, with 3 straight victories. One thing with Cesena, when (gifted) offence is firing on all cylinders; they can score against anyone (Juventus included). Offense back in gear in last three games having scored 5. Prior to that, only 1 goal in four games. I will not deny that Vicenza is playing well, with just two losses in last 12, but they just don’t match up against Cesena’s counter attacking midfield that has better size and speed. With 35 points, and a trip to US Pescara next week, Cesena must now make a statement for potential Serie A playoff spot. Fan support would have been huge for this one (1 loss in 12 home games for Cesena). Nonetheless, overall better team should produce accordingly (week 3 saw Cesena beat Vicenza 1-0). The play:
Cesena -0.5 -101 (4.5 units)
Brescia at TREVISO – Treviso continuing on a phenomenal stretch. Latest victim was Triestina last week (2-1 win). Following the X-Mas break, one of the more productive Serie B teams, 4 wins and 2 draws, with 10 goals scored, in 6 games. Decent price to pursue a team in excellent form (fans or no fans). The play:
TREVISO pk and -0.5 +106 (4 units)
Rimini at FROSINONE – Excellent. Recent scoring drought for Rimini has produced the "Under" inclinded line. Contributing to it, has been Frosinone’s unexpected and surprising defensive change. Will take nothing away from Frosinone, but in last 4 opponents ( Crotone, Albinoleffe, Modena, and Arezzo) see nothing of the Rimini kind. Barring any inclement weather, this match will have a quick pace and lots of nerve. These two are so similar in their 3-4-3 midfield oriented schemes that it should produce plenty of counter attacking chances. At the PK line, I will not go against Frosinone, who could pull off the offset. They will trade goals, all the way up the 90<SUP>th</SUP> minute, in what should be a surprising high scoring affair. It would not surprise me to see a 2-2 draw, but think Frosinone will produce enough for what should be the victory. The play:
FROSINONE pk –110 (5.5 units)
FROSINONE over OVER 2 and 2.5 +107 (7.5 units)
AS Roma at EMPOLI – All Serie A games for Saturday will be played at the same time. With the expectation of an easy Inter Milan victory vs Cagliari, Roma must go for the victory. Empoli in fine form, but will face an opponent with offensive prowess, and perhaps Serie A’s best defense. If opponent was other than Roma, would jumping all over Empoli. However, not enough firepower in the defensive-minded 4-4-1-1 host to seriously threaten the visitor. With the Lyon match on Wednesday, Spalletti will rest defensive core (Mexes / Chivu). But midfield of De Rossi / Pizarro, and striker Totti / Tavano formation could see Empoli spend a better part of the game retreated on the defensive front. See this one as a "true under", with scoring – if any – coming from Roma. The play:
AS Roma –0.5 +109 (4 units)
AS Roma under 2 and 2.5 –104 (7.5 units)
Ma says: Careful! Too many quicksands created by the absence of the fans. Nonetheless, for those considering one or two plays in Serie A or B, consider the Frosinone Over and AS Roma Under. If not, Sunday's card
contains two very good prospects.
Cheers and good luck,
MA
